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November 2006

November 29, 2006

   

"We're actually facing a national security nightmare: someone has demonstrated the capability to use radiological weapons on the streets of London and we don't know who they are. (Although we can make a couple of guesses.)"

Charlie Stross

 
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'For Better or For Worse: Entrepreneurs, Families, and Inequality

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Since 1950, women have entered the labor market in increasing numbers, as labor-saving devices have caused a shift away from housework. In addition, the proportion of women among college graduates has increased, at a time when the proportion of jobs that require higher education has been rising.

With women earning a higher share of family income than was the case in 1950, inequality is now affected by assortive mating (or assortative mating). Assortive mating means that men with high earnings potential tend to marry women with high earnings potential. David Brooks, author of Bobos in Paradise, pointed out that wedding announcements in the New York Times have begun to resemble reports of law firm mergers. In a sense, we are back to the pre-industrial era, except that today's elite marriages combine high salaries rather than large landholdings.

Many choices that young people make are influenced by assortive mating. You go to an elite college in part to be among others with high aspirations. You take a first job in a high-cost city in order to increase your chances of meeting someone in the upper income bracket.

The effect of assortive mating is multi-generational. We are now seeing children and grandchildren of two-income families enter the labor force. These progeny of well-educated, highly-skilled couples enjoy many advantages in terms of genetic endowments, good parental decision-making and role modeling, and a higher likelihood of finding themselves in peer groups that encourage high achievement. Thus, it would not be surprising to see an even greater impact of assortive mating on inequality in each succeeding generation....'

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=112106A

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November 28, 2006

 


"The most interesting part of this, for me, is the last paragraph. Matthew Yglesias is serving notice that, at least as far as he is concerned, Rubinomics is dead. Rubin and us spearcarriers moved heaven and earth to restore fiscal balance to the American government in order to raise the rate of economic growth. But whatwe turned out to have done, in the end, was to enable George W. Bush's right-wing class war: his push for greater after-tax income inequality.

We will try to argue for fiscal prudence and stability in the councils of the Democratic Party. But I fear this is a bellwether--that we will lose, because the choice will be presented as between (i) left-wing things that are good for the nation, and (ii) centrist things that simply enable another round of right-wing class war by the rich and their minions a decade hence."

Brad DeLong


 
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Before Thanksgiving the New York Times sparked discussion in economic blogs about conflict between Left and Central Democrats.  The Brad DeLong entry from which the quote above is extracted gives the discussion's essence in a gut punching way from the centrist point of view.  The American Prospect's Dean Baker gives the labor/left view. Neither blogger seems to consider that for the next two years progress in any direction is unlikely because congress is split three ways between labor/left, centrist, and right. The President is probably to the right of right in that he acts to maintain interests of the top 10% regardless of expanding money supply, inflation, or jobs.

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What I’ve been reading

Never saw it coming by Karen Cerulo is a study of disaster preparedness or rather its absence. Cerulo argues that the failure to prepare for disaster is not a matter of individual incompetence or fecklessness. Rather she argues it reflects a bias towards optimism that is deeply embedded in American culture.

In the abstract the argument seems convincing, and there is plenty of psychological evidence to support it. But I find myself disagreeing with a lot of the detailed argument. On the one hand, some disasters can’t be prepared for in any effective fashion, so it makes sense not to worry about them.

On the other hand, Cerulo cites as an example of successful preparedness the massive Y2K remediation effort undertaken in the United States. As I’ve pointed out on many occasions, other countries undertook no preparation and came out fine. Russia and Italy are notable examples - the US State Department issued a travel advisory for Italy as did UK authorities and Australia actually evacuated its embassy in Moscow leaving a skeleton staff to wait out the cataclysm. This isn’t being wise after the event. Once the 2000 fiscal year began with no serious incidents it was obvious that for anyone except nuclear reactor managers and the like, ‘fix on failure’ was the optimal response.

I’m not sure what to make of my disagreements on the details.Some disagreements is to be expected in any detailed argument. But the range of disagreement leads me to think that maybe handling low-probability catastrophic risk is something we are not very good at, sometimes preparing for non-existent risks and at other times failing to foresee obvious possibilities.

http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2006/11/26/what-ive-been-reading-13/

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November 27, 2006


Jimmy Carter


 
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Sometimes when one hears the biblical exhortation "Pray for the peace of Jerusalem" there is a silent follow on doubt...how can there be peace in Jerusalem?  Jimmy Carter's administration had two memorable accomplishments.  Paul Volcher was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board and a peace treaty was negotiated between Israel and Egypt.  Volcher's painful medicine mended the US economy.  Acceptance for Israel by Muslim nations continues to be a problem although the middle east situation was much improved by the agreements made during Carter's administration.   Now Carter  is back on the scene with new recommendations and a book -- 'Palestine Peace Not Apartheid'

US super conservative publications and some liberal Democrats are already dumping criticism on Carter. Usually criticism from left and right is enough to establish middle of the road credentials and I don't see that Carter's book is an exception.   

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Excerpt: Jimmy Carter's 'Palestine Peace Not Apartheid'
Former President Shares His Plan for Middle East Peace in New Book

Nov. 27, 2006 — Former president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Jimmy Carter was able to negotiate peace between Israel and Egypt, and has continued to remain in touch with all the key players in the Middle East since leaving the White House.

In his new book, "Palestine Peace Not Apartheid," Carter writes about the history of the Middle East and shares what he believes is the key to peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

Visit the Simon & Schuster Web site for more information about the book.

Chapter 17

Summary

Since the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty was signed in 1979, much blood has been shed unnecessarily and repeated efforts for a negotiated peace between Israel and her neighbors have failed. Despite its criticism from some Arab sources, this treaty stands as proof that diplomacy can bring lasting peace between ancient adversaries. Although disparities among them are often emphasized, the 1974 Israeli-Syrian withdrawal agreement, the 1978 Camp David Accords, the Reagan statement of 1982, the 1993 Oslo Agreement, the treaty between Israel and Jordan in 1994, the Arab peace proposal of 2002, the 2003 Geneva Initiative, and the International Quartet's Roadmap all contain key common elements that can be consolidated if pursued in good faith.

There are two interrelated obstacles to permanent peace in the Middle East:

1. Some Israelis believe they have the right to confiscate and colonize Palestinian land and try to justify the sustained subjugation and persecution of increasingly hopeless and aggravated Palestinians; and

2. Some Palestinians react by honoring suicide bombers as martyrs to be rewarded in heaven and consider the killing of Israelis as victories.

In turn, Israel responds with retribution and oppression, and militant Palestinians refuse to recognize the legitimacy of Israel and vow to destroy the nation. The cycle of distrust and violence is sustained, and efforts for peace are frustrated. Casualties have been high as the occupying forces impose ever tighter controls. From September 2000 until March 2006, 3,982 Palestinians and 1,084 Israelis were killed in the second intifada, and these numbers include many children: 708 Palestinians and 123 Israelis. As indicated earlier, there was an ever-rising toll of dead and wounded from the latest outbreak of violence in Gaza and Lebanon....

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Books/story?id=2680021&page=1


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November 26, 2006



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Last year's carefully research MP3 player is a bust for me.  Its mostly used to play the local NPR station while using an exercise machine.  MP3 requires some active programming.  What I want is a no hassel commercial free stream of classical background music.  The choice seemed to be between Sirius and XT satellite radio.  Looking around on the internet nothing seemed like a good fit.  A three day free  Sirius trial is available.  Some how Naxos Web Radio came up while googling satellite radio.  Naxos has only a 15 min. free trial but after listening to Sirius for about three hours 15 min. was all I needed.  Oddly pricing was in the same number of dollars or euros...19.  Since the euro began I've though of the two currencies as twin suns which revolve around each other with a nominal parity of one to one but this was the first time I have seen it in real world operation.  Most likely it means some web content is like software  -- hard to price because input and distribution cost are so different from cars or flat screen TVs.

The Wright Model is at 43, 50 or more would  be indicative of of an economic recession/hard landing.  The ERCI Weekly Leading Index is at 138.2 with a growth rate of 1.6.  Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI said "With WLI growth continuing to climb, U.S. economic growth prospects have improved, but promise only modest near-term growth,"

Growing up in the "oil patch" I've always heard from oil people that whenever oil supply gets really tight the geologist find some more reserves.  Over at Loki's Scriptures much the same point is made with a reference to a paper from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) which does serious damage to peak oil theory.

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Is recorded classical music too cheap?
...One development that must surely further cheapen the perceived value of recorded classical music seems to have slipped under everyone's radar - Naxos Web Radio . This subscription service offers sixty channels of classical music plus jazz, blues, world, folk, and New Age. There is up to one hundred hours of unduplicated commercial-free music available per channel. The channels are pretty well targeted. Contemporary Classical offers Adams, Brusa, Balada, Glass and Norgard among others, while the Early Sacred Music programme includes Palestrina, Tallis, Lassus and Obrecht.Example The service uses Naxos and other label recordings, and offers the opportunity to buy the CD's via amazon.com. And my question is recorded classical music too cheap must surely be answered by the token annual subscription charge of just US$9.95 (£5.50) for Naxos Web Radio. With this pricing it is difficult to see what their business model is, other than world domination. Naxos, and others offering give away pricing on the internet, should ponder the first law of the cyber-economy. This says that the price of information will tend towards zero. Unless we stop treating recorded music as an information commodity the price, and perceived value, will continue to plummet, with an attendant disastrous knock-on effect on the size of audiences for live performances. Another factor to take into account is that web radio is the medium of choice for tecno-savvy youngsters (plus a few older early adopters). Most older folk don't have the technical confidence to use a computer for much else than email and e-Bay. So the vicious spiral of ageing concert audiences is accerlerated. If you want to find out what Naxos Web Radio is almost giving away to the internet literate just open this link for 15 minutes no-obligation listening....

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Impact of Birth Rates on Mainline Denominations 


 


November 22, 2006

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Huntley Dent's Feast of Santa Fe Basic Green Chili Sauce
http://recipes.chef2chef.net /recipe-archive/52/277531.shtml



A Jewel of a Dressing
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061101/LIFE/611010326/1004






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November 21, 2006

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Who Killed Pierre Gemayel?

...This man was a fairly insignificant minister in Fouad Siniora's anti-Syrian cabinet.  His main significance is the his uncle Bashir was briefly president of Lebanon (assassinated), his father was president of Lebanon, and his grandfather, another Pierre, was founder of the semi-fascist "Phalange Party" of Lebanon.  That made this Pierre a great target as a symbol.

For decades, it has been a great parlor and coffee house game in Lebanon to speculate as to who killed the uncle.  Everyone has a theory.  None of them are conclusive and many start with the neocon epistemological device of saying "Well, it must have been..."

The Greater Middle East is moving along on its own course, spurred on by the goad of Bush Administration interventions in its business.

- Syria and Iraq have resumed diplomatic relations.  George Bush said he would be a uniter and not a divider.  Here is the proof. (irony)...

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2006/11/who_killed_pier.html

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Huntley Dent's Feast of Santa Fe Basic Green Chili Sauce
http://recipes.chef2chef.net /recipe-archive/52/277531.shtml


A Jewel of a Dressing
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061101/LIFE/611010326/1004

Democrats Plan Series of Votes on Ethics Reform
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November 20, 2006

 

A Jewel of a Dressing
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061101/LIFE/611010326/1004


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'"I began to see something very strange," Ms. Santamaría said in Spanish. "The difference was that the Anglo students would go to lunch together while the Latinos went with the Asians and the African-Americans." That, she said, raised a question in her mind "because the children don't know what segregation is." '

KENT FISCHER


For a time at least Anglicans seem to be focusing on women priest rather than gay priest.  While the English Church is considering women bishops the Church's ever variable Archbishop made headlines '"Williams: We may rethink women priests" and then articles in several papers suggesting that the Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, had made a series of lukewarm comments about the experience of ordaining women.'   Its enough to cause joy in the hearts and minds of conservative bishops in Rome, Nigeria, and Ft. Worth .  Of course this may just be Rowan's way of changing the topic for a while.  On this side of the pond  Katharine Jefferts Schori, Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church, and as Rowan probably noticed last month in London a woman, gave a brief question and answer to the New York Times published in the Sunday Magazine.  Notable she did not say "We may rethink men priest."   
Henry Kissinger has declared Victory in Iraq is no longer possible but the US can not withdraw too quickly or the results will be disastrous.  Kissinger also thinks the breakup of Iraq is a likely outcome. Republican policy on Iraq seems to have left the US in a position of choosing the least bad option.

If disaster happens its likely to be a swirling melee with Turks, Kurds, Iranians, and Syrians fighting each other for territory.  Maybe it would be good to start working now to convince these nations it would be in their interest to police sectors of Iraq.  "Go Big, Go Long, or Go Home" are three options the Pentagon has suggested in a current report.  And of course the Baker commission has yet to make its formal report.  We continue to live in interesting times.



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Huntley Dent's Feast of Santa Fe Basic Green Chili Sauce
http://recipes.chef2chef.net /recipe-archive/52/277531.shtml

November 17, 2006

Dominique Reynie



Pelosi is off to a rough start as Speaker of the House. Blue Dog Democrats are pushing for Pelosi to give the House Intelligence Committee chair to one of their own, Jane Harmon.  Pelosi needs to keep Democrat fences in good shape binding Blue Dogs and their districts to the party.  Selection of Harmon would be a gesture of good will toward centrist Democrats.

Dave (Newman), John, and Mike have lots of sympathy from me.  Their new Cuisinart Coffee Maker died and my food processor, a birthday present used only once for which I had great Thanksgiving plans, seems to have a bad lock, switch, or motor.  I will report later on the five year Cuisinart guarantee. Luckily food can be chopped with knives so a big batch of green chili sauce is ready for the freezer.  Soup du jour is one can of Campbell's Cream of Potato diluted with one half soup can of green chili sauce and one half can water or chicken broth -- much easier than Green Chile Vichyssoise.

ECRI's Weekly Leading Index growth rate moved up to 1.4%   while the Wright Model remains at 41%.  Its sloppy but there are several different formula's used to calculate the Wright Model.  Obviously I watch one calculated differently from the following pointer to a Globe and Mail article.


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Is a U.S. recession in the cards?

...Mr. Majendie said he will most likely make his recession call early in 2007. He will base his decision on two factors: the U.S. yield curve and the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading indicators, which can foreshadow turning points for the U.S. economy.

The odds of a recession, according to models by Federal Reserve economist Jonathan Wright based on elements of the yield curve and the level of the Fed Funds rate, have risen above 50 per cent eight times in the last 45 years. On six of those eight occasions, a recession followed within one year. On the two occasions that did not result in a recession — the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s — Washington produced significant fiscal

A Canaccord research associate who replicated Mr. Wright's model found that the odds of a recession have edged briefly above 50 per cent during the last two months, Mr. Majendie said.

The other metric that can be used to predict a recession is the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading indicator, watching for periods when it falls below minus 3 per cent and remains there for a period of nine weeks. This indicator has suggested that a recession was in the works seven times since the 1960s, a forecast that has born out on six occasions.

Over the last 14 weeks, the weekly leading indicator has been modestly negative — between minus 1.7 per cent and minus 0.3 per cent — short of the minus 3 per cent required to suggest a recession is pending....




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November 16, 2006

Timothy Egan


Too little too late....  Off the top of my head the history goes like this.  George Bush told the Pentagon he planned to attack Iraq and the Pentagon responded that it would win the war with almost a million US troops.  This would be difficult because the US was already engaged with the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.  Oven a few months under constant pressure from the White House the Pentagon revised its numbers downward until finally it agreed that the Iraq war was "doable" with about 200,000 people.  Two Hundred Thousand was enough to topple the Iraqi government but not enough to destroy its war materials or preserve civil administration.  Joyous mobs mutated into terrorist attacks on civil order.  Terrorist became insurgents.  Private militias attached to various political forces have moved into civil war mode. 

The President is  now serious recommending  to the Iraq study group "one last big push" next year with 20,000 additional troops....

NPR reporting on the  US National Book Awards quoted Timothy Egan, "We are a storytelling nation. We need to inhabit a narrative as a nation...", ... it reminded me of Tex Samples.  A 1980's Episcopal Bishop of Kansas hired Tex as a parish building consultant and advised building committees or buy sites on main streets "so people can find you."  The part of Tex's consultation that I internalized was "telling your story."  The idea is that organizations, families, people need to get together and tell their story, their history, to maintain a sense of identity and pass learning on from generation to generation.  Maybe I need to read Eagan's book.  The three big things I remember about the dust bowl are Fred Floyd's emphasis on FDR's response to a national crises, maintain the wind breaks protecting fields in or near grasslands, and mother's recollections about dust everywhere even in rooms with sealed windows and daytime napping on the still cool basement floor when it was 116 degrees out during the summer of 1936.

When I googled this phrase the top reference was in a Fox News Story --- Who would have thought  it? Fox reporting on a big book award?


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Editorial Review:

Book Description:
The dust storms that terrorized America's High Plains in the darkest years of the Depression were like nothing ever seen before or since, and the stories of the people that held on have never been fully told. Pulitzer Prizewinning New York Times journalist and author Timothy Egan follows a half-dozen families and their communities through the rise and fall of the region, going from sod huts to new framed houses to basements with the windows sealed by damp sheets in a futile effort to keep the dust out. He follows their desperate attempts to carry on through blinding black blizzards, crop failure, and the death of loved ones. Drawing on the voices of those who stayed and survivedthose who, now in their eighties and nineties, will soon carry their memories to the graveEgan tells a story of endurance and heroism against the backdrop of the Great Depression. Egan captures the very voice of the times its grit, pathos, and abiding heroismas only great history can. Combining the human drama of Isaac's Storm with the sweep of The American People in the Great Depression, The Worst Hard Time is a lasting and important work of American history...



 

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November 15, 2006



Today the French newspaper Le Monde reported that during the Tour De France the lab doing anonymous drug testing had "administrative errors" in which Floyd Landis's "B" sample was labeled with the wrong serial number but the lab is certain it tested his sample.    "The lab wrote the number 994,474 onto the doping form, while Landis's number was 995,474."     Apparently this type of transposition error is common when humans enter data so maybe the French need to invest in good scanning equipment rather than depend on human data entry at their labs and for field test.  Machine Bull S.A. could whip out a smart card based system in no time.



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Scream this from the rooftops

Tyler Cowen

We can't just bargain down the prices of pharmaceutical drugs without adverse consequences.  It is hard to measure the effects here, but yesterday I came across this piece of serious empirical work:

EU countries closely regulate pharmaceutical prices whereas the U.S. does not.  This paper shows how price constraints affect the profitability, stock returns, and R&D spending of EU and U.S. firms.  Compared to EU firms, U.S. firms are more profitable, earn higher stock returns, and spend more on research and development (R&D).  Some differences have increased over time.  In 1986, EU pharmaceutical R&D exceeded U.S. R&D by about 24 percent, but by 2004, EU R&D trailed U.S. R&D by about 15 percent.  During these 19 years, U.S. R&D spending grew at a real annual compound rate of 8.8 percent, while EU R&D spending grew at a real 5.4 percent rate.  Results show that EU consumers enjoyed much lower pharmaceutical price inflation, however, at a cost of 46 fewer new medicines introduced by EU firms and 1680 fewer EU research jobs.

Here is the paper.  Here is a non-gated copy.  Here is my column on medical R&D.  Here is a previous installment in the series "Scream this from the rooftops."

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2006/11/scream_it_from_.html




 

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