Too Soon?

Its no secret I support President Obama. His State of the Union address delivery and content was superior to any given by the three previous presidents. He has a knack, when given opportunity, of directly addressing his opponents with thoughtful responses to criticism He demonstrated this in the SOU and again Friday addressing questions from the Republican congressional caucus.

However when I read brief to the point analysis from people I respect like “Can Someone Please Tell Me How This Is Supposed to Be Good Policy?"   [ http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/01/can-someone-please-tell-me-how-this-is-supposed-to-be-good-policy.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BradDelongsSemi-dailyJournal+%28Brad+DeLong%27s+Semi-Daily+Journal%29&utm_content=Google+Reader] I am pessimistic about the economy of the US in the next five years  

If one accepts DeLong's premises about current likelihood of different outcomes for the economy, and I do, it seems that US domestic policy is withdrawing stimuli too rapidly and trying to address deficit problems too soon. Economic outcomes likely will shift away from “a 30% chance that the U.S. economy is about to start growing rapidly” or 'a 40% chance that we are about to start a recovery like or a little bit better than the "jobless recoveries" ' toward a more than 50% chance of a double dip recession.